Filling shoulder season without training guests to wait

Every public discount is a lesson. Run one each October and by the third year your guests know to book in October, which is precisely the behaviour you did not want.

A targeted offer to known members has the opposite effect. It is invisible to the wider market, so it does not reset anybody's price expectation.

Segment simply: guests who stayed once and never returned, guests approaching a level, and guests who last stayed in the same season. Three segments are enough for most properties.

Give the offer a reason. 'Because you are close to Gold' converts better than a percentage, and it costs you less.

Then measure the stays that came back, not the opens. A campaign that produced eleven bookings is a good campaign regardless of what the email statistics said.